(JollofNews) – President Yahya Jammeh has drawn the battle line in his New Year’s address: new elections or military confrontation with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Jammeh’s departure is no longer a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ and ‘how’ as he has lost both domestic and international legitimacy. Will he leave peacefully or violently in the first or second half of 2017? Will he be removed by domestic or international forces?
Given the difficulties in resolving a political impasse of this nature, there are chances that Jammeh will still be in power to oversee not only another Gambia Independence Day celebration on 18 February but also another Ramadan in May and June. Let’s hope it does not take that long.
I anticipate three ways that Jammeh could be persuaded to leave power: through the Gambian Armed Forces, or negotiated settlement or Senegal-led ECOWAS military intervention.
The quickest way for Jammeh to leave power is if the Gambian Armed Forces turns against him after his mandate expires on 18 January. However, this course of action is the least likely. It is hard to imagine that Jammeh’s die-hard loyalists that foiled the December 2014 coup in his absence, would turn against him in his presence if he refuses to hand over power. If anything, the Gambian Armed Forces are very likely to back him to the hilt.
Jammeh’s coup-proofing strategy has enabled him stay in power for the past 22 years. He has a psychological strangle-hold over majority of the army. Part of his coup-proofing strategy over the years is to prioritise loyalty over meritocracy in the army, the government, the judiciary and the parliament. Also, he has established that no one is beyond retribution if they cross his path or pose a threat of any sort.
Jammeh has used the carrot and stick tactics very effectively to sow mistrust and fear of retribution within the army. The mistrust and fear make it daunting for any officers in the army to contemplate plotting against the Jammeh administration.
Furthermore, Jammeh has built a personality cult, projecting an aura of mysticism to convince a good number of soldiers as well as Gambians that he has supernatural powers. He claimed to be able to cure incurable diseases and can exorcise demons including identifying anyone with sinister plots against his administration.
The public display of jujus around the neck of the Chief of Defence Staff, Ousman Badgie, in December 2016 while renewing his pledge of loyalty to Jammeh after he contested the election results revealed the far-reaching psychological effect of Jammeh’s make-believe mystical powers on the army leadership.
If mediation and negotiation are used effectively amid domestic and international pressure including sanctions on Jammeh and his acolytes such as travel bans and assets freeze, he will likely buckle and depart peacefully probably in Ramadan.
President-elect Adama Barrow is holding the trump card. From 19 January, the Jammeh administration together with all the ambassadors and high commissioners around the world will no longer be recognised as the legitimate representatives of The Gambia.
Instead senior government officials and diplomats appointed by Barrow will be recognised. The Barrow administration will be the internationally recognised Government of The Gambia. It means that the Jammeh administration will cease to receive financial supports from international institutions including African Development Bank, World Bank and IMF. This will further isolate Jammeh and deal a significant blow to his grand standing.
At home, Jammeh will also face the torment of incessant pleas from religious leaders, online and on-ground protests by civil groups, and desertions by some senior government officials to force him to leave. Both domestic and international pressure will be overwhelming and unbearable for Jammeh and his acolytes.
Regarding a Senegal-led ECOWAS military intervention, this will likely be in the second half of 2017 for a couple of reasons. Some ECOWAS member states like Guinea have expressed reservation over the use of military force to resolve the impasse. Moreover, to legitimise the use of force, international actors have to demonstrate that all political options have been exhausted. So, chances are slim that ECOWAS will receive immediate approval from the African Union and the UN Security Council to take military actions to remove Jammeh.
In the event the negotiation prolongs until March, it is also very unlikely that military actions will receive a ringing endorsement in The Gambia and Senegal ahead of the Muslim Holy month of Ramadan from May to June 2017.
In the final analysis, let’s stay optimistic that Jammeh will spring another surprise (as he did when he conceded the election) by handing over to Barrow in a dramatic fashion or the army unexpectedly realise that their loyalty is to the state and the Gambian people, and not to the president as an individual.
There is no gainsaying the fact that the use of mediation and negotiation amid international and domestic pressure will deliver the result in a less costly way than military intervention.
Nonetheless, in the age of instant delivery, the slow and arduous process to reach a negotiated settlement will make it less appealing to many Gambians who voted for change on 1 December.
Murtala Touray, a Gambian in the UK advising government and corporate entities on commercially-relevant political and security risks. He is former Rotary World Peace Fellow and current Global Peace Index Ambassador.
I don’t believe in what you saying Murtala Touray….however, we Gambians believe in the supremacy of God over all things and we look forward with certainty God’s adequate resolution of this standoff. Inshaa allah Jammeh will be destroyed by Allah; 2016 election revelation is just the beginning of that happening because he is a lair, a traitor, a killer, a big monster and a baster!!!!!!!!
This is not a helpful article as it will only give Jammeh and his cohort a boost in confidence because they will convince themselves that they are in a position of strength. Gambians should stop over analysing the situation in The Gambia and instead shout as loudly as we can that we don’t want Jammeh to stay for a day longer than the 18th January 2016. It’s all good to say we don’t Gambian blood to be shed but Jammeh does not and has never cared about Gambian blood been shed. A more desperate Jammeh in the Gambia beyond the 18th January 2016 will shed more Gambian blood than any military intervention will.
If Jammeh stays beyond his term he will become more brazen and will cause more atrocities than he has in the past 22yrs. Jammeh will kill more Gambians and then a military intervention will result in further Gambian deaths. If ECOWAS acts immediately then the loss of life can be minimised. Guinea will not veto any military intervention and neither will the AU or UN security council.
We should stop inadvertently giving Jammeh and his cohort ideas that will allow them to over stay their welcome.
I agree Buba Sanyang. The time for any negotiation is now and before 18th. Beyond that he is no longer president and no longer in a position to negotiate anything. If his soldiers don’t defect, they are also guilty and anything they do can see them in the dock for war crimes. By rights if he does not leave his pad in time he is nothing more than a squatter and should be physically removed by the police or the army like any other person illegally occupying someone elses home. His assets accross the world should be immediately frozen until a full investigation has concluded on where these ill gotten gains came from – then sold and the money ploughed back into the Gambian infrastructure where it should have gone in the first place. I do hope he is not killed for I would much rather see him arrested and given the option of 9 feet deep in one of his wells or mile 2 where he belongs. You are right, under no circumstances should he think he can bargain after this point – he is then nothing but a rebel and his soldiers rebel mercenaries and should be treated as such. The Gambia is my daughter’s blood and my husband’s motherland and my passion – #Gambiahasdecided !!!
I agree, this is not a helpful article. Gambians should mobilize as the rest of the world for the departure of monster jammeh by hook or crook
Gambians should mobilize as the rest of the world for the departure of jammeh, the monster killer
jammeh is a danger for the Senegambia sub region.
Right now, the momentum is with the incoming government. We all have our opinions, and have every right to one but I believe in the interest of democracy, we should not be giving opinions, whether founded or not, that may harden the stands of the outgoing president and unnecessary prolong this impasse.
I don’t know how one can govern a country with domestic pressure and international isolation and sanctions. It reminds me of the then apartheid regime in South Africa. This would be interesting.
This is Africa that I know. The most embarrassing continent when we come to power.
I hate this continent! !Wish I wasn’t born an African.Leaders are full of shit! !!!
Alfred, don’t be too emotional. Is a struggle that will take time to be defeated. It will be defeated. Naturalized somewhere out of Africa for the time being.
Is time for Yaya to go to his 5 star hotel .
And nothing can stop that , he have been killing The real Gambian for 22y .
Am are Gambian and I love all gambian .But we don’t need somebody like Yaya Jammeh again .
His time is over.
God Bless gambia
Foreign judges will come to Gambia to hear the election petition including Nigerian judges. I laugh off my pants because Nigeria is ranked among the 10 top corrupt countries in the world. Hope they will get this one right.
Jammeh, wll have a surprise slap those mercenaries just want money thats all they no what the exit way is, if one look at the picture is easy to read, jammeh is under the influence of satan.
Please for Allah’s sake he needs some respect atleast,we should be polite and reasonable in addressing him,we should consider his good side too.My opinion.
Well said Dr Isatou, I can’t understand why some people are refusing to acknowledge how oppressed Gambians are. Yaya Jammeh behaves like he is God, and does he respect anybody???
MT you are right in your reasoning but I have a more concrete view of how this plays out. First and more likely scenario is that Yahya simply realize this is the end game and walk away to a friendly country like Mauritania. The reason why this is plausible is Yahya is a coward and very afraid. That is a common character of most brutal dictators. They are driven by fear.
The second option is ECOWAS will intervene on Jan 18, perhaps sooner but not later. PMB is very clear that he intends to attend the inauguration and he will on the 19th. I hope Yahya does not miscalculate and think Buhari will blink. He won’t. Those who knows the man are sure he will pull the trigger on Yahya and won’t blink an eye. Hope Yahya makes the right decision.
Pseudo Dr Isatou Sarr,
You would have better written, “President Jammeh will pull a trigger against that feeble old Buhari without blinking an eye”. He’s more manly and determined to continue until the Gambia supreme court draws its verdict. Besides, what democratic lessons can Buhari teach the Gambia, when he and Babangida mussled the Nigerian people’s electorate verdict in voting into power of late Yoruba tycoon Mashood Abiola?
Aren’t you abreast with news, when he told Buhari and the initial ECOWAS mission that he will never recede? He’s stood his words and on 19th, we’ll write a new episode on line.
The international community is gradually reading and taking heed of the President Jammeh and APRC rightful petition to challenge the fraudulent December 1st election results in our courts. Those who deny to accept that rightful constitutional exercise should blame themselves for any eventual unrest.
@Babu Soli, I didn’t know you would be this shameless hiding out here in Jollof news with your broken exhaust pipe polluting the Gambian atmosphere. Jammeh is a coward and a mere act of brave people. He is a real pseudo human who has never once been himself in life but imitating and acting bravery from fairy tales and myths. That is why his bravery is best demonstrated holding Gambians at ransome, something you Babu soli is a partner in. He is such a coward he would use newborns as a human shield. When PMB and counterparts come for him, I bet he will wet his devilish kaftan. Brave men wouldn’t chose to die with innocent and unarmed people. He should have by now been drawing out his defence frontlines away from the civilian population to wait for the intervening Ecowas forces. With what..? One jet fighter and a few smokey tanks and some contigents…That is not your boss’s hope of defence from the Ecowas if not to hide among civilians. An arrest warrant should be out for you @Babu Soli. You have cowardly incited ethnic cleansing in the tiny country online and that should be brought to international attention already. Who would doubt that the likes of Jammeh are cowards when his goofy cronies like Babu are out to murder babies in with their mothers. You should be wanted by the Ecowas after happily making comments couple of days to the election that soon, HEADS WILL BE ROLLING DOWN THE DITCH AND JAMMEH WILL BE SWORN IN. You are not even intelligent compared to most participants in the country’s political resolve much more comprehend the position of ECOWAS. The best thing for you is hand over power that you clinched to with the use of terror, a method that won’t work anymore. A
Bourne:
Thank you Bourne, Babou Soli is empty big mouth talk and phony Pan Africanist hiding in Holland. He supports the Subjugation of our African brothers and sisters simply for expressing their political view points. Shame on you Babou Soli.
Point of correction, Buhari was not in Government when that election was annulled. Buhari became Head of State of Nigeria after overthrowing Shehu Shagari’s Government on the 31st December 1983. He was himself push out of power by his then Chief of Army Staff Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida on the 27th August 1985. It was Babangida who annulled the 12th June 1993 election. If you call Dr Isatou Sarr Pseudo-Intellectual then the least you could do is get your facts right.
BS, The issue here is the constitutional rights of Gambians to be happy, free and live a fulfilled life in our own country without fear of rape, false arrest, torture and death.
Your boss and benefactor Yahya Jammeh has abused our God given rights for 22 years and you know that. It’s obvious you are part of this evil regime and a benefactor. Allah is the ultimate judge of evil men and women.
You talk about a Supreme Court. The same Court that is not constituted because Yahya fired the Judges or are you referring to the kangaroo court paid for by Yahya to subvert the will and choice of Gambians to have President Elect Adama Barrow to lead us out of bondage.
Nigerians are the first people to admit their system is corrupt. Don’t deflect by talking about Nigeria. Buhari is not representing Nigeria, he is representing ECOWAS with a very clear and specific mandate supported by the entire world. The only people resisting change in The Gambia and advocating the continuation of status quo are Yahya apologists, thieves and crooks. Those who have engaged in human rights abuses in Gambia.
If you just allow rational thinking and stop being guided by your greed you will realize the game is up and advise Yahya to save himself, his family and his thugs from a certain death.
The international community has spoken, but you and your types are not listening. Let me repeat what the international community said, Go away Yahya, your games and bullying won’t work this time. Gambians DONT love you and they don’t want you.
Gambians will rid ourselves of Yahya and President Elect Adama Barrow will be inaugurated on Jan 19Th. Insha Allah.
God Bless Gambia.