By Alagi Yorro Jallow
The Gamban economy is expected to make modest growth in the coming year as the new government of Adama Barrow implements structural reforms.
According to Bloomberg’s Business 2017 Country High Risk Classification report for investment in Africa, the Gambia’s growth declined to 2.1% in 2016 due to policy slippages and electoral uncertainty, but is expected to rebound to 3.5% in 2017 and 4.8% in 2018 following a peaceful political transition.
The outlook depends on the ability of the new administration to carry out a smooth and fast transition to make needed reforms and set the basis for structural transformation. Below is the unedited full Bloomberg report.
The report authored by Authors: Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi, Yannis Arvanitis, Khadidiatou Gassama, Radhika Lal, and Abdoulie Janneh said the country’s economic growth declined to 2.1% in 2016 due to policy slippages and electoral uncertainty, but is expected to rebound to 3.5% in 2017 and 4.8% in 2018 following a peaceful political transition.
The outlook depends on the ability of the new administration to carry out a smooth and fast transition in order to make needed reforms and set the basis for structural transformation.
Industrial policy suffers from a lack of core infrastructure, technological innovation and the lack of regional integration needed for the economy to reap the benefits of a much larger market.
As a small and open economy relying on agriculture and tourism, Gambia remains highly vulnerable to climate change and external shocks. Policy inconsistencies, high spending and unfavorable weather conditions in recent years have negatively affected economic potential and fiscal performance. In addition, Gambia is characterized by high debt and high interest rates.
Growth for 2016 is estimated at 2.1%, down from 4.4% in 2015. This is mainly explained by policy slippage on reforms, the crowding out of private investment, an average agricultural season and a year-end political scenario that tamed the tourism season. The outlook for 2017 and 2018 looks positive, with growth rates projected at 3.5% and 4.8% on the back of a peaceful political transition.
The election of President Adama Barrow in December 2016 led to Gambia’s first democratic executive change since independence. After the incumbent initially declined to leave power, mediation and military pressure from fellow West African countries led to his peaceful departure. The outlook for the country is thus greatly dependent upon the ability of the new administration to carry out a smooth and fast transition, shore up finances, regain the confidence of partners, stabilize the country to bring back tourists and set the basis for economic transformation.
On the fiscal side, rebuilding fiscal buffers should become a top priority, notably through improved wage bill management, tightened control of spending, review and restructuring of public-sector enterprises and control of domestic borrowing.
Although Gambia has witnessed a degree of structural transformation over the past ten years, the country has not significantly increased the industrial sector’s share in the economy (15% in 2013, up from 12% in 2004), nor has it increased manufacturing value added.
Hurdles to industrialization include poor regional integration, the absence of reliable and cheap energy, and sub-optimal infrastructure and training. Similarly, entrepreneurship has yet to take off. Barriers include a shortage of entrepreneurial skills and structural gaps in the business environment including difficult access to finance and land, high taxes and sub-optimal administrative proce
The mere confidence bestowed on the current administration by international financial institutions is a good indication that we are on the road to a positive economic revitalization and development.
Herculean task! Simplify.
1. Control spending
2. Reduce taxes
3. Create favorable and attractive environment for investors
4. Develop pro business infrastructure, cheap energy and roads.
5. Security
My suggestions
1. Remove all police check points- They are a purposeless nuisances.
2. Institution of leash law in all public places. Get rid of all those disgusting stray dogs causing anxiety to visitors and posing a serious health hazard
All small steps that are bound to improve our bottom line and stimulate growth.
God Bless The Gambia.
To add to the suggestions of Dr Isatou, Education and skills training are very important to support and accommodate new Gambia, these skills and education are the forefront of the development government must invest heavily in these areas for every infrastructure and to ensure right people for the right jobs. Do not repeat what Jammeh was doing, he certainly hire wrong people’s for the wrong jobs, this is why his government received fail economy.
News of economic growth is always welcome, but how this growth is measured and its impact on the population should not be ignored. Any reported economic growth that does not translate into improved living standards and livelihoods of the population should be dismissed as meaningless, regardless of who’s reporting it.
We’ve had reports of economic growth for far too long without any significant changes to either our economic power, as a nation or the livelihood of the population. On the contrary, whilst every government since Jawara, has reported economic growth in most of their economic forecasts, the living conditions of the people, except for a few connected to power at every given stage, has continued to decline to near starvation levels for a vast number of families across the country try.
Thus, the question begging to be asked is this: if indeed we have been experiencing economic growth for much of our existence, as an independent country, who benefits from this?
The hard truth is that the UDP coalition, minus Mai Fatty, had not a clue about the working of government and continued to follow APRC government economic policy. Despite frequent promises to change legislation all that was done was to raise the Age limit, to allow advantage to UDP members. The system is broken , as Mr Sallah has said. The economic strategies are obsolete. The amount of debt has not diminished’ It has actually risen by 12 % of GDP versus government borrowing.Whoever is saying GDP will grow next year is only speculation. To tax those who are already paying tax and contributing greatly to the economy is simply madness. This is a pretend government that has not an economic working brain and can’t even limit its own reckless spending.
You are stirring the hornet’s nest, but you aren’t far from the truth.
To be fair to the UDP, this is a “Coalition Government”, where compromises may have to be made, but I think whoever believes that things will be significantly different under a UDP Government, from what we are seeing now, or indeed, from the APRC era (bar the rampant rights violations and open theft of Public funds) has not been paying attention to our politics since 1996.
The economy will start growing exponentially under static political stability; & built up strengthening gradually through successive governments with time…
Mike the stated age limit insertion in the Constitution was a kanilai Evildom political discrimination purposefully along side the others which has no place in the statutory dispensations of the Land; the precedence is setting but can’t be exhaustive &/ limited to this coalition government alone but will progressively spread across governments unto future generations…
It’ll be unfair to hold up the current transition government to the current Gambian affairs, political, economic & social amongst all, which all know, were due to the catastrophic advent of the kanilai Predatory Evilness & the Greedy mercenary servants & enable disciples & complicit accomplices…
The economic analysis if digested independently, without bias political leaning; our main issues were natural climatical drought adversely affecting rainfed agriculture which are the general mainstay of much of the farming population among others; impacting on food security in particular, for the family unit, par the greater community; which includes food consumption for energy, nutrition & healthy life of the person/individual & rest of great community in link….
The general lack of ‘amenities’ infrastructure, energy & funds among, much of which were being recklessly devoured on intent fully for aggressive theft for personal enrichment for the past 22 years; I would doubt anyone differently at the helm currently would have much success in turning things around faster, with the task inherited….
The current changes in the constitution, for example, are cosmetic, if you like, to untie the current administration’s hand; to preside over the affairs smoothly & facilitate for other meaningful changes warranting as necessary when a new document is finalised subsequently…
Bax, the analysis is ‘outwardly onlooker’; except under the evil kanilai killerdom period which were heaped on falsified (cooked up) statistical cookies & other barbarous manipulations among blackmail, harassment, torture, rape, murder; the forecast & projections are based on genuine indicators but not limited to, in terms of jobs, businesses, revenue generation, health, social progression among others; it’s hardly noticeable directly with bare eyes for the peasantry poor in terms of personal ‘wealth’ (whatsoever that means) under the PPP & Coalition government currently but the indicators show positivity at the macro levels which do have link & effectively trickle down progressively to the greater community generally; it will need continuation of the dedicated endeavour of all Gambia to participate our constitutional quotas in anyways possible, to gradually improve upon & graduate to the aspiring heights in foresight….
God bless Gambia….
The only way sudtained economic growth will be achieved is through investment in the productive sector of the economy. That’s the first point. Second, a culture of institutional democracy that is robust, dynamic and promotes the welfare of the populace. Political stability alone do not and has never yielded economic prosperity. Good intentions will not do it for us. They are not measurable tangents.
So far we have a government that is clueless and has a reactionary attitude to our challenges and aspirations, at best.
In the service of The Gambia and Africa, I remain.
Lamin, sustained static political stability is the bedrock ingredient to cement the foundation unshakeable for a peaceful coexistence & jealously guarded for anything meaningful ever to take place & established to develop into sustainable prosperity…
It’s on the basis of political stability ALONE & ONLY, that the rest of any other development variables can take effects to be measurable….
The government is by the people, for the people in a democratic society; our responsibilities are to take upon the government & always taken to task where & whensoever necessary, in either innovative ear drops &/ critique critism, etc in comparisons & complementary efforts to contribute our inalienable quota requirements to develop the Land…