Now that the parliamentary, council and mayoral elections are out of the way, the political environment appears stable for the next three years – not least because the UDP has shown its political dominance winning all these elections.
Sure, the first-past-the-post (or winner-takes-all) voting system is unfair, but Westminster is the “Mother of Democracy” and no-one can criticise UDP’s dominance which is based strictly on the voting system that exists in UK today (here too the voting system will give us a “winning” Mayor – even though 73% of the votes cast are against him or her!). One thing that can be said for the first-past-the-post system is that it produces clear “winners” and stable governments – contrast this with Italy’s system where they have had 40 or so unstable governments since the way.
So now that Lawyer Darboe and his UDP have the legislators and the mayors that they need in place, it is full speed ahead for the necessary reforms and infrastructural developments that they need to show the electorate in 2021. Clearly there will be formidable challenges in the area of youth employment where population growth easily outstrips jobs created; in the area of food-production where new mouths to feed easily outstrip growth in local food production; and in the area of general security as some of the unemployed youth turn to crime (no different from UK). But the political environment will be stable – and that is what is most important in addressing those other pressing issues.
President Darboe in 2021 – for one term only!
That is my first prediction – and if it happens you can say you first read it here. At the moment Lawyer Darboe, the man who risked his life with his comrades to get rid of Jammeh, is sitting comfortably at the helm of his dominant UDP and nothing can stop him from becoming President in 2021 – if he wants to.
Darboe is already in The Gambia’s history books for his 22-year challenge to Yahya Jammeh, just as Mandela was by 1994 for his long challenge to Apartheid. The aged Mandela was rewarded by his grateful fellow countrymen and women with a one-term presidency and then a graceful retirement. I think Gambians, and certainly not least the general membership of the UDP, feel that Darboe deserves nothing less than a one-term presidency and a place in the history books as the 4th President of the Republic of The Gambia. I have no doubt that the 3rd President of The Gambia, Adama Barrow, thinks and feels along these lines too. Whether likes it or not, Darboe will not be able to resist the clamour for his presidency come 2021.
President Bensouda 2026?
This is more of a wild prediction since the young man has just been elected to his first ever political office as Mayor of Kanifing. But it seems to me that the support of the UDP-party machine, and the 100% support of the Barrow Government, not to mention generous international donors and the goodwill of local business, all mean that Bensouda may be able to fix the massive problems of the KMC that other mayors have not been able to fix before (anyone remember my front-page headline in the Daily Observer – RUBBISH KMC!).
If Bensouda can fix The Gambia’s biggest council, not least by clearing the Bakoteh Dump and fixing the roads, he could claim rightly that he is the person to fix The Gambia’s problems in 2026. But I think he has only one-term at KMC to fix the problems, for if he eyes 2026 he will need to be Darboe’s VP at some point to get national exposure (and he will need a long white kaftan, Barrow’s white hat – and some prayer beads when travelling to Basse!).
And of course, it is all “INSHALLAH” dependant!
…………not least because the UDP has shown its political dominance winning all these elections.
It was NOT a UDP candidate that won the presidential election. It was a coalition pick, Adama, in whose favor Mai Fatty of GMC CONFESSED (the audios are still in circulation) to manupulating the primary process. Fictionalizing the truth can never be the real deal.
Glorifying Ousainou and trying to impose him as a historic heroic figure in Gambian history is nothing short of day dreaming. But I know deep in my heart the contents of your piece will make him a soulful reading. Thats what he basks in.
The “success” of the UDP lies entire in sectional politics. The party does not have a clear consistent policy manifesto that in one way or the other explains to the Gambian electorate the concrete steps it intends to take to end poverty, illiteracy, the low life expectancy and spur in prosperity, economic development and a politically robust democracy for the fututre generation.
The National Development Plan blue print looks very similar to the manifesto of the yellow party. If you have taken the time to read it, you will see lots of words joined together to form empty sentences. Those empty sentences, are not worth the paper they are written on. Maybe you would like to prove me wrong in our debate. We already have an apt topic. Your predictions were fun to wrap my mind around. But they are just what they are, predictions.
NB: Do you know if Koto Yorro is still contemplating whether to debate or not?
Yours in the service of The Gambia and Africa, I remain.
Actually Lamin, you are so hot that I no longer blame Koto Yorro for chickening out … I am reconsidering my foolhardy bravery in putting myself forward so hastily!
By the way, are you one of those 4% PDOIS like my in-law? Even APRC is around 20% while UDP is 50%.
I really don’t understand what you mean with “hot”, Dida. Smiles.
It’s impossible that Koto Yorro will be scared of a debate on a topic (tribalism or lack thereof it) that is necessary to be openly talked about, debated and dissected in the spirit of democratic consolidation in our country. I did not propose a debate on rocket science.
I had lunch with Halifa in 2017 and we reminisced about our first encounter and how the journey has so far progressed. We recognized that the work that needs to be done is much more tedious than accruing votes just for the sake of it. Sidia Jatta invited me to his house last February to have a conversation on a presentation I was suppose to make at the National Assembly. It was one of the most passionate encounters I have ever had in my entire life. A day to remember.
I hope that anwers your question.
Hey……I missed to see Dr. Sarr around.
Any sighting in London?
Dr Sarr’s husband is hiding her away in East London (I am in posh Kensington and refuse to get a visa to look for Dr in East London).
So I guessed correctly your under-cover PDOIS-assignment on Jollofnews! Are you taking over from my in-law Bax – or are you 002?
Hahaha!!!! There’s no no1 or 2 here. We are all exercising our rights to freedom of association.
And of course, a person of Lamin’s intellect and level of awareness can be swayed by ONLY ONE group of politicians in The Gambia and you know who they are.
The task of freeing the minds of the voters is a Herculean task and it’s not being helped by number of people determined to keep them politically enslaved to their parties and personalities.
Undercover……? you most be kidding. I have no reason to be undercover. Nobody ever asked my political convictions and am not advertising it anywhere. So, you asked and I answered. There is no question of taking over or delegating, we are all exercising our civic and constitutional rights. Including you.
Doc has earned her relaxing time. Perhaps we will see her around soon.
Doc, enjoy London and extend my request to the queen to return all stolen goods, art and artifacts, diamonds and pearls, monies and human beings.
In good humor.
Lamin, I was sleeping when Doc called me from East London. I told her no way I was going to East London – I recall the nightmare when I left my posh Kotu for the People’s Centre in Churchills Town: not even a fan let alone an air-conditioner! Man!
Resources have to be judiciously expended Dida. If PDOIS can contribute more money to oust Jammeh than any other party, which is an established fact, isn’t that enough evidence that the party cares more about Gambia and Gambians than mundane luxuries such as air-conditioning, beautiful cars, suits and Kaftans etc.
You come from California in Kenya, a ghetto, and now got used to living posh. All good, but how many Gambians will ever have the opportunity to climb the ladder of social mobility as you have. Not many. Besides, the majority might die without ever knowing the freedom from hunger, talk less of living posh. Our work is greater than aspiring for frivolities and personal comforts. lol
Hey I dont like the direction this conversation is taking. I have nothing to defend, am here in my capacity as a private citizen and i want to keep it that way.
My sympathies Lamin, #ME2! I was once hoodwinked by “revolutionary” Jammeh – just as you and my in-law were hoodwinked by PDOIS. We are both victims.
Oops Lamin. This statement has unveiled a window to this observer.
“Hey I dont like the direction this conversation is taking. I have nothing to defend, am here in my capacity as a private citizen and i want to keep it that way”.
The frailties if the human nature?
I will leave it at that. Smiles.
I just wanted to maintain my contributions here apololitical. I still intend to pursue that course. Good to see Andy lurking around. From now on, I will know how to lure you out. Grins
@ Doc: I don’t know what you mean with take a seat at the “table”, but I plan to do ALL I can, to share with my people the little I understand to avail them to become independent thinkers and actors for a better living.
Enjoy your time in London.
@Bax: I believe intelligence is over valued mostly to the detriment of persistence and a dogged determination. The two win the long battles.
You are right that only one party had been able to “sway” me.
The others do consistently try and fail the test every time. Miserably.
Here we go again!
Business as usual. We may be in serious trouble moving forward. Non of the candidates spoke with clarity about the most important issues affecting their constituency and what they intend to offer as solutions and how to go about it.
On the electorate side, no one asked the hard questions and held the candidates feet to the fire. So people voted for the status quo. Not surprising.
Dida predicted that Darboe will be rewarded with the presidency in 2021. Unlikely for 2 reasons. 1. Life expectancy and poor health.
2. UDP war and internal implosion. I don’t think Barrow will fall inline, having tasted power, if he willingly relinquish it without a fight, that, in my opinion Darboe will loose, I will say lets check his DNA, we/most Africans believe in self perpetuation.
Dida concerning Talib, what exactly does he have to offer, other than his pedigree. I think that he will love to run for president and his mother will push for it, but the diaspora Gambians have found a voice, but more than a voice, they have found a need to return home and fix “their father’s house”. I think we should get ready for a “fight”, and those with:
1. Skills. – Those who can help fix Gambia.
2. Love of country. – We all do.
3. Those with Organization, will be the next crop of leaders. Days are gone when your Mama can buy your ticket.
My hope is that the voters, with the availability of information and access to facts will make better decisions and Gambia will benefit.
One thing I find unsettling is the lack of PDOIS presence front and center in national discuss. It is a huge miscalculation and a loss to us as a nation.
Lamin, Bax got you, you are undercover. But it will be in the best interest of our country to step out boldly and take a seat at the “table”.
Dida keep dreaming my Uncle.
There is hope for our great nation.
Dr. I hate it when smart PRETTY girls, (mostly African), whom I invite to sit at my table, sit down with a pretty smile and HELLO UNCLE!”. Toubab girls here in London have far better manners! “Uncle” my foot!
On the Darboe & Bensuda presidencies, I stand by my prediction. Thank you AUNTIE!
Are you now publicly denying your niece. That’s not nice.
There a passage in the book UNDER THE BAOBAB TREE where “Amadou Samba introduced every girl as his niece” – that was pre-1994
Lol
If you are referencing the book by Rosemary Long, I love that book.
Yes, greattach Scottish humour – I was there for 12 years
Hey Ndugu Dida, take heart and be bold!
In Wolof, Manding and Poularr traditions, the door was always left open for the, Jarrbaat-Jarabi Baat thing. Thus the deep seated tradition of young wives fondly calling husbands, Nijaye or Mbaring.
So Bajaw may want to suggest that the Dr call the hubby Nijaye.
Yeah, I know. She’s got a tool in the arsenal to counter that!
Dr Sarr, you may recall the song that goes, Nijaye, Ma Mogn Am?A staple at all true Wolof weddings. Smile.
On a more serious note, we figured way back when that Ousainou Darboe has always been itching to be President (Mansa). So nothing’s new there!
If my observations serve me well, the YAA always maintained that Ousainou must be “seated” in honor of “NNA YAA” at all costs. Also the reason that he wouldn’t work diligently to attract young and able leadership into the ranks. I am of the conviction that it was all by design from the outset. We all remember the common narrative about “having been in the trenches” in the fight against Yaya. Could this be a statement of convenience?
To Dr Sarr’s point. The UDP structure as it is, is prone to implosion. That’s a likely scenario as I see a feud brewing.
On Talib Bensouda, I’d say that that’ll be a tall order. Only if Dr Sarr, Bax and like minds are caught asleep.
The mention of Talib for President alone is ample reason, Dr Sarr, for those that look to promote a progressive Gambia to start regrouping sooner!
Gambians tend to be creatures of habit that are hard to sway from deep seated cultural dictates. This factor alone possibly underlies the age old phenomenon of PDOIS’s seemingly endless chipping away at the old block! Did I just say that? We all know that patience and commitment do pay dividends. Smile!
Pjalo, Bax, Lamin, Dr. Sarr:
Clearly none of you is a UDP supporter and you completely fail to see how the UDP Supporters think: 1. They revere their leader Lawyer Darboe; 2. They see Barrow as a UDP-President; 3. Barrow sees Lawyer Darboe as HIS LEADER and Mentor.
So:
1. There will be no “implossion” or “in-fighting” within UDP;
2. Barrow will happily welcome a Darboe Presidency in 2021 – should Darboe want to be Presidency … infact, I think Barrow will be ENCOURAGING Darboe (with the backing of the whole UDP);
3. Darboe has said it himself – he is looking to the young generation taking the mantle of leadership and, in his own words, “will support Bensouda if that is what he wishes”.
The Luntango sees well here: it is Vision 20/21!
PS: I am sure Dr Sarr will one day sing “Nijaye, Ma Mogn Am” for the handsome Luntango!
Andrew, my in-law”s prediction about Lawyer Darboe becoming the next President may come true, but I think he may be wrong about the one term presidency.
If Darboe becomes President, he will serve longer than one term and I wont be surprised if they attempt to amend the term limit, if we succeed in putting it in the Constitution, to allow him to continue.
Talib for President? Probably as an independent. He will never get near the UDP Leadership position to be their presidential candidate. I cannot see that happening in the UDP of today, but as the saying goes, “pigs may fly”… Money talks in Gambian politics and he comes from an affluent background.
Dida Halake aka “Luntango”: Westminster “is the mother of Democracy”. From this point on Halakes’s predictions seemed to be informed by the “Marabout Fortune telling Syndrome” for anyone willing to part with their “Kodo”. All predictions are based on “feel good”, “trust me” and “Inshallah” (Allah Willing…) predictions with little insights and or in-depth analysis of the Variables that may impede or enhance the outcome, for or against. That being said, it is not a prediction as much as it is pandering to and for relevance in a Party and Leadership that I suspect holds and views Halake (Luntango) with Suspicion if not Contempt. There is a saying in Mandinka, “this did not happen here before”; should worry the guest aka “Luntango”. Halake aka Luntango has been active in the self-promotion and re-branding of his image business with a over the top manner not befitting a self-described individual, who is by his own account is doing very well and living it up in his posh Kensington, London. At the same breath, the same Halake aka “Luntango” took an insulting swipe at those who live in Churchill Town the Contempt of a large population of Gambians a guest aka Luntango can’t afford to be association with much more express as he did in this Pandering piece Halake aka Luntango passes off as Political analysis. Like I said, all went down hill when Halake aka Luntango said, “Westminster is the mother of Democracy”. Nonsensical gibberish. Democracy birthed at Westminster? When? After 1776 (American Independence) from Colonial Britain? May be 1812 when the last War for Independence was fought between Britain and its former Colony America? These are relevant questions because the US Constitution especially, the Bill of Rights are the real tangible and operational Democratic Principles and Aspirations we call upon and in many instances rely on. Not the Magna Carta Not the Communist Manifesto. Neither gave Sovereignty to the People as in “We the People”…. Please, Halake aka Luntango, “We the Gambian people request your restraint and indulge by not taking us for fools. Pandering to a Party’s leadership and Party for whatever your reasons may be, does not entitle you denegrade or even insult a whole community by Proxy.